IPS WORKING PAPERS No. 14

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Implications of The Economic Rise of The PRC For Asean and India: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

 

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Sadhana Srivastava and Ramkishen Rajan

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Abstract

An important and vigorous policy debate ongoing in Asia concerns the impact of the economic rise of the PRC on the rest of the region. This paper examines the relative performances of the PRC, selected ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), and India over time, as well as the intensity and changing dynamics of their intra-regional economic interactions. Focus is on trends and patterns in merchandise trade, trade in commercial services, and FDI flows the last two decades and potential impact of the PRC’s continued economic emergence on ASEAN and India.

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Contents

 SECTIONS

 

1.  Introduction

2.  Broad Trends in Trade and FDI: The PRC, ASEAN-5 and India, 1980-2000

2.1 Merchandise Trade

2.2 Trade in Commercial Services

2.3 FDI

3. Economic Interactions Between the PRC, ASEAN-5 and India, 1984-2001

3.1 The PRC and ASEAN-5

      a) Merchandise Trade

      b) FDI

 

3.2 The PRC and India

      a) Merchandise Trade

      b) FDI

 

4. Is the PRC a Threat to ASEAN’s and India’s Export Competitiveness?

4.1 Complementarities or Competition in Manufacturing Trade

      a) The PRC and ASEAN-5

      b) The PRC and India

 

4.2 Complementarities or Competition in Services Trade?

      a) The PRC and ASEAN-5

      b) The PRC and India

5. Is the PRC a Threat to ASEAN’s and India’s FDI Prospects?

6. Concluding Remarks on Asian Regionalism

 

Bibliography

Annex 1

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Sadhana Srivastava and Ramkishen Rajan (2003), Implications of The Economic Rise of The PRC For Asean and India: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Singapore: IPS, 69 pages.

 

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